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1. The Euro looks like the ERM

On 16 September 1992 the EU gave up on the narrow band Exchange Rate Mechanism. Italy was forced out of the narrow bands. Spain, Portugal and others were also unable to hold their currencies against a strengthening DM.The Euro is the ERM it’s more difficult to get out of. The ERM still left countries free to set their own interest rates and budgets. They had to juggle their policies to try to keep confidence going in their currencies. The failure to do so was pretty comprehensive, as the market ganged up on currency after currency. The ERM was meant to be a dry run for the single currency. Instead it set it back. When they did go ahead they simply ignored the fact that several leading players in the Euro had been unable to remain stable against the DM in the ERM days.The ERM should have been a warning to the founders of the Euro. If markets could destroy a currency locking device, why did they think markets would leave a single currency untouched? They obviously forgot that the debt markets were still open. Investors and speculators can make their views known through the bond markets, just as they did through the currency markets for the ERM.I find it sad that some of us have had to spend so much time and effort trying to explain why the ERM would not work, and now trying to explain why the Euro cannot work in its current form. It’s bad enough having to do it once. Having to do it twice is worrying. What part of the ERM experience did they not understand?
URL: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2011/11/04/the-euro-looks-like-the-erm/ - 202KB - 10 Mar 2012
Excerpt: feed john redwood s diary the euro looks like the erm comments feed...

2. Spare us the fibs about the EU and the Euro

The “debate” about the EU and Euro remains higgled by misunderstandings that serious people peddle out. Let’s just deal with a few of them.1. If the UK makes a stand or declines to support the Merkel plan, we could lose the 10% of our National Income based on exports to the EU.Response: Whatever happens at summits, Germany will still want to sell us cars and France will still want to sell us wine. The UK will still be selling products and services in the EU, under existing EU rules and WTO controls. That does not change, whatever we do or say on the architecture of the EU and Euro.2. The Merkel plan for greater fiscal controls will save the Euro.Response:The Merkel scheme does not suddenly shrink the Greek deficit, or miraculously refinance the large Italian debt. Printing money could buy them a bit of time, but is not conditional on changes to rules and Treaties. Nothing in the Merkel plan solves the twin probems of too much debt and too little competitiveness in the problem countries.
URL: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2011/12/09/spare-us-the-lies-about-the-eu-and-the-euro/ - 210KB - 10 Dec 2011
Excerpt: us the fibs about the eu and the euro comments feed rsd john redwood s...

3. Greek government legitimacy | John Redwood's Diary

The “wise heads” of the EU establishment think the Greek New Democracy (Conservative light) party should join forces with Pasok (Socialist light) party yet again in coalition and carry on with business as usual. These parties were rejected by two thirds of the Greek electors. What part of “No” does the EU establishment not understand? Once again they do not get this democracy idea. The two parties themselves decided not to undertake this task, but more negotiations lie ahead.Yesterday morning I listened to a Greek commentator saying the people had elected a Parliament of clowns and worse. He objected fiercely to the people not knuckling down and voting for candidates who were prepared to tell them that the European dream meant the continuing reality of austerity in the form of ever higher taxes and further attempted reductions in state spending. He should understand that the people voted as they did because they think the Euro dream has become a nightmare, and they want change.
URL: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2012/05/08/greek-legitimacy/ - 174KB - 11 May 2012
Excerpt: as they did because they think the euro dream has become a nightmare and...

4. Will France and Greece get an end to austerity? | John Redwood's Diary

Over the next few weeks democracy in Euroland is on trial. Most pundits and commentators agree that French electors voted in Mr Hollande to end austerity. Most agree that the massive swing against Pasok and New Democracy in Greece was a swing against austerity policies in the Euro and EU. The problem is, the voters may end up with little changed austerity policies come what may.Part of the reason is the voters’ own mistake. Many French and Greek voters who want an end to austerity think they can have that without withdrawing from the Euro. I fear that is very difficult if not impossible. Voters in Euroland seem reluctant to accept that the whole architecture of the single currency is founded on austerity all the time the huge imbalances between Germany and the rest persist. If the rich areas refuse to send much money to the poor areas – as they do – the poor areas have to deflate, cut wages and costs severely, until they can compete. This cruel economic logic is not popular, but voters are reluctant to conclude that the currency is at fault.
URL: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2012/05/07/will-france-and-greece-get-an-end-to-austerity/ - 178KB - 11 May 2012
Excerpt: against austerity policies in the euro and eu the problem is the voters...

5. The case against Europe: Doomsayers wail that a euro break-up would trigger Armageddon. That's what they said about us leaving the ERM, but it sparked an economic boom | Daily Mail

DANIEL HANNAN: Every new bailout is hailed as the end of the crisis. Every one fails, leaving the markets as sceptical as before.Over 13 years as an MEP, Daniel Hannan has witnessed first-hand how Brussels works. Now he has written a forensic analysis of why it’s rotten to the core. Yesterday, in part one of our exclusive serialisation, he laid bare the EU’s utter contempt for democracy. Today, he examines the rise — and imminent fall — of the euro . . .How did so many clever people get it so wrong? The flaws in the euro project were visible at the outset. It was never going to be possible to jam widely divergent economies into a single monetary policy.Yet, in every national parliament, in every central bank, in every university faculty, in every BBC editorial conference, there was a collective suspension of disbelief.Why? What were supporters of the single currency thinking?
URL: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2188912/The-case-Europe-Doomsayers-wail-euro-break-trigger-Armageddon-That-s-said-leaving-ERM--sparked-economic-boom.html - 202KB - 16 Aug 2012
Excerpt: day forecast doomsayers wail that a euro break up would trigger armageddon...

6. Speak for the UK, Mr Cameron

Mr Cameron has a simple choice. He can either go along with the plans for a German Europe, and be hailed by federalists as a good European, or he can call their bluff and speak for the UK.The Merkel plan will not save the Euro. It does nothing to tackle the underlying problems of too much government borrowing, and too little competitiveness. It increases the gap between the governed and the governing. Fining countries who have no money is ludicrous.
URL: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2011/12/08/speak-for-the-uk-mr-cameron/ - 201KB - 10 Dec 2011
Excerpt: us the fibs about the eu and the euro speak for the uk mr cameron by view...

7. Eurocrats are now consciously seeking to prevent a post-euro recovery – Telegraph Blogs

Give him the full £250,000, I say, this ten-year-old Dutch boy. The Wolfson Prize, the second most valuable in the world after the Nobel, is on offer to the economist who devises the best plan for an orderly dismantling of the euro. The judges have very decently sent young Jurre Hermans a €100 gift voucher, but he has not made the shortlist, which has been filled by people with more extensive academic backgrounds. Still, the lad from Gelderland Achterhoek seems to me to have got to the nub of things. If the euro is failing with its current membership, he says, change that membership. Greece should return to the drachma over a bank holiday, with restrictions and penalties to prevent a massive flight of capital. He helpfully adds a drawing of a machine that could carry out the conversion.True, Jurre's solution leaves some questions unanswered. It is neither as comprehensive nor as ingenious as the five short-listed entries. Still, Jurre he has got the big picture right. If the euro isn't working, leave. Everything else is detail.That might sound flippant, but it's not meant to be. When the crisis hit, European leaders responded by asking themselves 'how do we save the euro?' rather than 'how do we rescue the people who use the euro?' Every one of their schemes begs the question. Eurocrats have shown themselves quite willing to inflict poverty, deflation and emigration on millions rather than admit that their project is intrinsically flawed.
URL: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100149036/the-end-of-the-euro-is-europes-best-hope-which-is-precisely-why-eurocrats-resist-it/ - 55KB - 18 Apr 2012
Excerpt: seeking to prevent a post euro recovery comments feed rsd...

8. Was that it?

The Euro fix is a proposal for a Treaty change to make Euro area countries borrow less. Apparently if they do not comply they will be fined. The fines, I assume, will be paid for out of extra loans advaced to these countries by the EU, or perhaps the IMF!
URL: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2011/12/06/was-that-it/ - 158KB - 10 Dec 2011
Excerpt: 6 2011 a a a a a a a a a the euro fix is a proposal for a treaty...

9. The German surplus

Let us talk today about the German surplus. There it stands, enormous, giving Germany a great sense of achievement and power. No wonder so many Germans want to keep the Euro. They associate it with high levels of exports throughout the EU, and rising cash balances as they seek payment for their goods.In 2010 Germany exported 179 billion Euros more than it imported. 60% of its exports were to the rest of the EU.It leads Germans to say to other Euro members, you can be like us. Work as hard as we do, set realistic wages, and you too can have a surplus like ours.The German surplus is matched by the southern states’ combined deficits. Portugal, Greece, Spain, and Italy had a combined deficit about as large as Germany’s combined surplus. They like Germany do a lot of trade within the EU. They recognise that Germany has become more competitive than them. They want a way to pay for the goods they buy from Germany. They seek loans or grants from the surplus country to pay the bills. Germany is not keen to send them grants, and is trying to restrict the borrowing. The southern states are forced in to austerity measures, to curb their appetite for German products.
URL: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2011/12/07/the-german-surplus/ - 184KB - 10 Dec 2011
Excerpt: so many germans want to keep the euro they associate it with high levels...

10. Apocalypse Not | Mail Online

The idealism that drove the EU's founders has long since sunk beneath a sea of flagrant corruption, political self-interest and financial anarchy, says SANDBROOK.
URL: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2072311/Apocalypse-Not.html - 111KB - 10 Dec 2011
Excerpt: apocalypse not death of the euro need not be the disaster that...

11. The euro crisis, cognitive dissonance, and proof that Germans have a sense of humour –...

It looks like denial. Greeks want the euro, but not the austerity it requires. Germans want the euro but not the tax-rises it demands.In fact, what we're seeing is a form of cognitive dissonance. From the first, the euro was aggressively promoted as a way to boost growth. Indeed, the most surreal thing about all this talk of a 'growth strategy' in Brussels is that we're dealing with the consequences of the last 'growth strategy' – monetary union. None the less, two decades of propaganda have left their mark. People are not quite ready to see that the euro is the cause of their problems, not the solution.
URL: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100167538/the-euro-crisis-cognitive-dissonance-and-proof-that-germans-have-a-sense-of-humour/ - 53KB - 01 Jul 2012
Excerpt: news rss feed news the euro crisis cognitive dissonance and...

12. Eurozone debt crisis: Euro bailout attempt is utterly dishonest | Mail Online

Why the euro bailout is the biggest Ponzi scheme in history:The recent decision by the Bank of England to pump another £75billion into the economy shows that Britain, far from recovering, remains on the edge of another dip.But what happens to the British and world economy is, to a large extent, out of our hands. The greatest threat to our economic future is what is happening in the eurozone.The scale of the euro crisis has made one thing abundantly plain: Europe, Britain and the rest of the world would be better off if the euro had never happened. It would be preferable if it were now dismantled in an orderly manner.
URL: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2048016/Eurozone-debt-crisis-Euro-bailout-attempt-utterly-dishonest.html - 89KB - 12 Oct 2011
Excerpt: c overcast 5 day forecast why the euro bailout is the biggest ponzi scheme...

13. Will the IMF ride to Spain’s rescue?

As we get ready for the meetings of the IMF and World Bank this coming week-end a familiar Euro crisis is brewing again. Yesterday Spanish ten year bond yields rose more, to 6.16%. This week Spain is planning to tap the 12 and 18 month money market on Tuesday, and to raise 2 and 10 year money on Thursday. It needs to carry on borrowing, to keep pace with its deficit, to pay all those public sector bills. Some are alarmed at how much it will have to pay to carry on borrowing.Spanish shares have been falling. Markets have raised more doubts about some Spanish banks. The government has taken powers to be able to move in and run any regional government in Spain which does not do a better job this year of running its own finances. In March Spanish banks were borrowing Euro 316 billion from the European Central Bank, a large sum.
URL: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2012/04/17/will-the-imf-ride-to-spains-rescue/ - 128KB - 11 May 2012
Excerpt: this coming week end a familiar euro crisis is brewing again yesterday...

14. The euro was never necessary for European growth - Telegraph

In the second instalment of his book The Trouble with Europe, Roger Bootle says claims that if the euro fails, Europe fails is, as a matter of economic logic, hogwash
URL: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10791310/The-euro-was-never-necessary-for-European-growth.html - 89KB - 28 Apr 2014
Excerpt: deals home finance economics the euro was never necessary for european...

15. Mr Cameron wisely declines to rely on Labour to drive through a new EU Treaty

Mr Cameron did the right thing to veto the Treaty for 27. It was clear there was no wish on the part of our partners in the EU to take our growing frustration with the drift of the EU seriously, no wish to help the UK at all. Our demands were modest. They were for the EU to interfere with us less. They were not demands that cost money or tried to change the way anything works on the continent. Many people in the UK will remember how they treated us, for what comes next. I am glad the extensive lobbying and arguing by the Conservative Parliamentary party before the meeting helped shape the debate and influenced the decision.
URL: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2011/12/10/labour-can-decide-the-uks-european-policy/ - 132KB - 10 Dec 2011
Excerpt: us the fibs about the eu and the euro mr cameron wisely declines to rely...

16. The people's verdict: Most Germans and French DON'T want to stay in Euro | Mail Online

A startling poll last night showed that only a third of French people believed that their country should stay in the euro indefinitely.
URL: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2072312/The-peoples-verdict-Most-Germans-French-DONT-want-stay-Euro.html - 138KB - 10 Dec 2011
Excerpt: and french don t want to stay in euro only a third of french and four in...

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